The initial reaction is of course one of disappointment, bitterness, and maybe even anger. After all, the Indiana Pacers just about had the game won, but LeBron James, being the MVP, superstar, one of the GOATs that he is, blew by Paul George for a game-winning layup at the buzzer. And so game 1 of the 2013 Eastern Conference Finals ended in an 103-102 OT thriller in Miami.

People are questioning whether coach Frank Vogel blew it. Towards the end of regulation, Vogel took out 7'2" Roy Hibbert because he was worried about Chris Bosh's speed and mid-range jumper. The Pacers ended up getting George Hill switched on James, and James overpowered him for an easy layup. Vogel made the decision to take Hibbert out again on the final possession of the game, and Paul George overplayed James on the inbounds pass, allowing the MVP to get a first step on him. And that was all he needed.

Was it Vogel's fault the Pacers lost this one? It's easy to say now that he made the wrong decision in taking out whom he calls the "best rim defender in the game" because James finished with a layup at the rim. But what if he kept Hibbert in and Bosh won it with an open jumper? Hindsight is always 20-20. That said, it probably would sting less had it been Bosh rather than James who took that last shot.

It's also easy to get on Paul George's back because he failed to stay in front of LeBron on that final play. The idea was to make the King take a contested jumper, but 2.2 seconds was way too much time, and Lebron only needs one dribble to get all the way the cup. But if George hadn't hit that 32-foot three-pointer at the end of regulation the Pacers wouldn't even have gotten into overtime in the first place. If he hadn't drawn a foul on D-Wade and hit three crunch time free throws on the second-to-last possession, the Pacers wouldn't even have had the lead.

Sure, LeBron had a triple-double with 32-10-10, but he worked so hard for it because PG24 went toe-to-toe with him all night. For his part, George finished with 27 points, 4 rebounds and 5 assists. Most impressively, after struggling mightily from the foul line last series against the Knicks (he was 3-9 in game 6), George finished 10-11 from the charity stripe. That's the sign of a superstar right there, and people often forget he's only a third-year player who just turned 23.

In the aftermath, people have been quick to jump to the conclusion that the Pacers won't have another chance like this in the series. The Heat had 20 turnovers! They won't have that again, they say. But hey, Pacers had 20 turnovers too. And what are the odds of Chris Andersen shooting 7-7 from the field again?

Was this the Pacers' best chance to get a win on the Heat's home floor? Perhaps. But the Pacers lost game 1 last year as well and came back to snatch game 2, so I wouldn't count them out just yet. Before the series began, I noted how important it was for the Pacers to perform well in the keys to the series in order to have a chance to prevail.

The first of those was to dominate the boards, and they didn't get that done. They won the overall rebound battle 43-38, but the Pacers allowed 16 offensive boards, allowing Miami to get to many of the 50-50 balls, especially down the stretch. The Pacers simply have to do a better job boxing out and rebounding.

Secondly, I said the Pacers have to limit their turnovers, and they didn't get that done either. They should be aiming for 10-15, but tonight they had 20. They've struggled protecting the ball all season and it will be hard to keep them down in the face of Miami's suffocating traps, but if they want to win a chance to win the series they have to take better care of the ball.

I also said the Pacers need to stay out of foul trouble. They were somewhat successful in that respect tonight, with only David West missing a portion of the first half because of foul trouble. Still, all five starters had at least 4 fouls, with Roy Hibbert on the edge with 5.

Free throw shooting was another area. The Pacers hit a respectable 24-32 from the line (75%), but realistically they need to shoot 80% or better. In a series where every point counts they cannot afford to cough up those free points.

The Pacers bench, which is usually horrible, turned out to be OK in the end, mainly because of the spark Tyler Hansbrough brought to the team. Psycho-T had 10 points and 6 rebounds in 12 minutes, while DJ Augustin had 8 points in 15 minutes. To be honest, that's about all you can ask of this Pacers bench, and I would be ecstatic if they got that kind of production every night.

So yes, the Pacers did some things right but also a lot of other things wrong. Instead of feeling like they blew the only chance they had, the Pacers should feel very confident about getting so close to stealing one in Miami. This was one of those games where I kept expecting Miami to turn it up to another gear and break the game wide open, but it showed how much I was underestimating this Pacers team -- like everyone else. Instead of folding, the Pacers buckled down and withstood wave after wave of attack and were right there until the end. I had doubted they had that much resilience in them. I won't make that mistake again.

I waited a couple of days for the dust to settle after that New York series to ponder whether the Indiana Pacers have a leigitmate shot at upsetting the defending NBA champs Miami Heat in the Eastern Conference Finals this year. I have not yet seen a single expert daring to pick the Pacers in this 7-game series, but to the Pacers' credit, there are no predictions for sweeps either. It's going to be 5, 6 or 7 games, but the victor, in the end, will no doubt be Miami. Or so we are led to believe.

The majority of "experts" also picked the Knicks to beat the Pacers, and but for a New York-like scoring binge in game 2 and a George Hill concussion in game 5, it actually turned out to be a rather one-sided series in favor of the Pacers.

This is not the same team that struggled to finish the year and the one that looked very vulnerable in the first few games of the first round against the Atlanta Hawks. These Pacers appear locked in, and while their offense still comes and goes, that world-class defense they are famous for is back -- and it will be needed if the Pacers are going to have a chance.

The truth is, Miami is favored for a big reason, and his name is LeBron James. Paul George could be the best wing defender in the world, but the best he could hope to do in this series is to relatively "contain" Lebron with a lot of help from his teammates, especially by funneling James into the best rim defender in the game, Roy Hibbert. But as long as LeBron is on the court, the odds of the Pacers advancing are slim.

The way I see it, if the Pacers are going to win the series, they will need a lot of things to go right for them and some things to go wrong for the Heat. The margin of error will be as thin as a piece of paper.

First of all, the Pacers will need to dominate the boards, especially on the offensive end. This Pacers team misses a lot of shots, and those second chance points will be key to the series. Reducing the Heat's second chance points will also be huge. The Heat are seriously undersized and if the Pacers can bully them under the ring it will give them a much better chance to succeed in this series.

Second, turnovers will need to be kept to a minimum. The Pacers are notorious for finding creative ways to give away the ball, and the Heat are just about unstoppable when they get their transition and fast break game going. If the Pacers don't take care of the ball this series could get ugly in a hurry. If George Hill does not continue to feel the effects of that concussion it will definitely help, but the whole team needs to protect the ball at all times.

Third, the Pacers starters will need to stay out of foul trouble. This will be a huge factor for the Pacers. If Paul George gets in early foul trouble, the Pacers will have to call upon Sam Young to guard LeBron. That sentence speaks for itself. If Roy Hibbert gets in early foul trouble, there is still Ian Mahinmi, a poor-man's version of Hibbert, but if Mahinmi gets in foul trouble it's pretty much over for the Pacers. Staying on the floor might be the biggest key for this Pacers team.

Fourth, free throw shooting. The Pacers have had some shocking free throw shooting games recently, and the biggest culprit has been Paul George, one of the team's supposed closers. George has not shot well from the floor, but that could be because he's expending all his energy on defense. But games where he is shooting 1-3, 4-7, 5-8 and 3-9 from the line are not going to cut it (that's actual numbers from 4 of his last 5 games). To be successful, the Pacers need to shoot close to 80% from the line for the series -- at least. No more 19-33 free throw shooting nights (like in game 5 against the Knicks). Points won't come easily against the Heat, so free points should never be wasted.

Fifth, Roy Hibbert and David West will need to have a big offensive series. Paul George will have his hands full on defense with LeBron. If he can score as well, great, but that's not his primary objective. George Hill might have a great shooting night or two (like the 26 points he put up in game 4 against the Knicks), but he's not going to do it on a nightly basis. Lance Stephenson showed what he could do in closing out the Knicks in game 6, but for all we know right now he might never have another game like that in his life. So that leaves David West, who averaged 22.7 against the Heat in 3 games this season, to shoulder the offensive output. I mention Hibbert as well because the Heat have no one on their roster over 6'11 (and that's Chris Bosh, not exactly a bruising post defender), and only 3 guys 6'10" and over (the others bring Chris Andersen and Rashard Lewis). Hibbert SHOULD be able to score against this Miami defense. He did for a while in last year's series but Miami adjusted well to shut him down in the final 3 games. He'll have to put up some points this year too.

Sixth, the bench will need to not suck so bad. They don't have to be great. They don't have to be good. They just need to not suck. The Pacers starters will hold their own against any team, but whenever they shift to the bench I start to get nervous. DJ Augustin just needs to hit his open threes. Tyler Hansbrough just needs to be effective with his hustle plays and get under the Heat's skin. Ian Mahinmi just needs to rebound and protect the rim. Sam Young just needs to provide a few minutes of solid D. That's it.

Dywane Wade's injury woes will also be key. He didn't look so great against the Bulls, but he didn't need to be, which is scary. I still have nightmares on some of the insane shots Wade hit in last year's series. If can return to that kind of form it's good night for the Pacers. But if he's a shadow of his former self that will really allow the Pacers to focus more of their energy on LeBron.

So yeah, that's a long list of things that have to go right for the Pacers for them to win this series. It's probably going to be Miami in 5 or 6, but I'm hoping the Pacers can push them to 7.

They're back, baby! The Indiana Pacers broke free of my jinx for the second straight round by beating the New York Knicks 106-99 tonight, finishing off the series in 6 games and heading into the Conference Finals against the Miami Heat. Yes, for the first time ever, I have correctly predicted two Pacers series in a row (I said Pacers over Hawks in 6 as well).

After a disgusting game 5 in which both teams played as ugly as flies circling a turd, game 6 turned out to be a ripper. The Pacers stuck to their guns and kept forcing the ball inside, trying to draw fouls and getting the Knicks front line in foul trouble, which they succeeded in doing (Tyson Chandler and Kenyon Martin both fouled out, as did Iman Shumpert).

The Knicks, on the other hand, went to Carmelo Anthony early and often, and he answered with 39 points on 15-29 shooting. New York also caught fire from downtown in the second half, hitting what felt like 20 three-pointers in a row to give the Knicks the lead after falling behind by double-digits early in the third quarter. The Knicks lived and died by the three all season, and for a while tonight it appeared as though those threes would help them live to see another game.

This was great playoff basketball. Physical, tense, and every possession counting. The Pacers looked like they were on their way to a grind-'em-out double-digit win until the Knicks went on that insane three-point barrage. Then it looked like the game was the Knicks to lose, but the young Pacers dug deep, and as coach Frank Vogel told them to do, embraced the challenge.

In the first 5 games of this series, the Pacers usually have one guy that steps up and carries the team in their victories (David West in game 1, Roy Hibbert in game 3, George Hill in game 4). Tonight, it was an all-round effort, but two guys in particular stood out.

First of all, Roy Hibbert, who had 21 points, 12 rebounds and 5 blocks. He was a thorn in the Knicks' side and thoroughly outplayed Tyson Chandler all series. His offense was there tonight but it was his usual magnificent rim defense and hustle that won the game for the Pacers. Hibbert had the play of the game tonight when he stuffed Carmelo Anthony on a one-handed dunk -- that was 100% all ball -- with the Knicks up 92-90 and less than 5 minutes to go in the game. The momentum clearly shifted on that play and the Pacers were able to steady the ship and deliver the knockout blow.

Speaking of knockout blows, the man who delivered it tonight was Lance Stephenson. I thought he would prove that he was "Born Ready" in game 5 with George Hill out, but tonight was really his coming out party. Stephenson razzled and dazzled and powered his way to a team-high 25 points and 10 rebounds, with all of his 9 field goals coming near or right at the rim. Seeing him in the open court was spectacular, and the old Knick guards had no answer for his explosiveness and tenacity. Stephenson scored 9 of the Pacers' next 11 points after Hibbert's block on Anthony, giving the Pacers a 7 point lead they would refuse to relinquish.

The Knicks also had some pretty boneheaded plays down the stretch that contributed to their elimination. They were still in the game with a minute to go (down 4 points) but Shumpert allowed the Pacers to waste 10 seconds off the clock before committing a silly reach in foul against George Hill.

After Hill makes the free throws to give the Pacers a 6-point lead, Chris Copeland misses a three, but the Knicks would allow around 16 seconds to elapse on the clock before fouling Paul George. By that time there was only 9 seconds left on the game clock. Seriously -- you are down by 6 points with 25 seconds to go and the other team has the ball. How hard is it to realize that you must foul as soon as you can't get an immediate steal?

Paul George, who had 23 points, 5 rebounds and 4 assists, missed both free throws (he was just 3-9 from the line tonight and must work on his free throws before facing Miami), but the Knicks allowed Sam Young to sneak in to grab the offensive rebound. Game over.

As I said, it was a team effort with a couple of standout performances. David "The Rock" West was solid with 17 points, 5 rebounds and 4 assists, and carried the team early in the second half to open up that double-digit lead, and while George Hill struggled coming back from a concussion (he couldn't hit many open shots tonight, going 2-10 including 1-6 from three), he was a steadying influence on the ball (Pacers had only 9 turnovers, which is HUGE for them) and knocked down all 7 of his free throws, including a couple of big ones to effectively ice the game.

The Pacers bench was, as usual, not great -- Tyler Hansbrough was gross, but the four bench guys only played a combined 37 minutes, so they didn't really get much of a chance to stuff things up too much.

Anyway, the Pacers are finally back in the Eastern Conference Finals for the first time in 9 years, and they will be heavy underdogs against the defending champions Miami Heat. If you had asked me before the Knicks series I would have said the Heat in 5...6 at the very most, but this Pacers team has shown a special resiliency and fearlessness that I think could go a long way.

I'll hold off my prediction for now, but if Dwyane Wade continues to be a shadow of his former self with knee problems, Roy Hibbert dominates the small Miami front court and Paul George plays great defense on Lebron...then who knows?

This game was so ugly that I don't really want to talk about it. Even Grantland did a write up of how comical it was at times (yikes).

All that needs to be said is that George Hill was out with a concussion suffered against Tyson Chandler in game 5, the Pacers had to start DJ Augustin, the Pacers played horribly and missed nearly half their free throws, and the Knicks escaped elimination with an 85-75 win. 

Let's look for the silver lining. First of all, if Hill returns for game 6, which he likely will, the Pacers will be a significantly different team. Secondly, the Pacers are playing at home, where they have been undefeated so far in the playoffs and tend to play much better. Thirdly, as "soft" (as Roy Hibbert called it) and badly the Pacers played in game 5, they were actually still in the game well into the 4th quater. Fourth, even though the Knicks won game 5, they weren't exactly burning down the house, suggesting that they are nowhere near the hot form they were in prior to entering the playoffs. Fifth, the Knicks didn't show the type of urgency I had expected of them in an elimination game.

Put all those factors together and I'm starting to get confident that the Pacers can close out the series in 6, with or without Hill.

As an eternal pessimist, I was convinced the New York Knicks were going to put up another spectacular 30-2 run to tie this series at 2-2. And I also knew if they did that, the series was likely to go 7 where the odds would be on the Knicks side.

But like they have done many times this year, the Indiana Pacers locked down, played mean, played ugly and played hard, dominating the glass 54-36 on their way to an easy 93-82 victory and a commanding 3-1 leading in this second round series.

The Pacers have a lot of offensive weapons, and on this night it was George Hill, who racked up 26 points on 9-14 shooting. Roy Hibbert didn't have a big offensive night, but he was a rock in the middle, blocking 3 shots and grabbing 11 rebounds to go with just 6 points. David West had a 10-10 double-double, Lance Stephenson had 13, and Paul George was all-round solid with 18, 14, 7, 2 steals and 2 blocks, even though he shot just 6-19 (including 1-9 from downtown) and committed 5 turnovers.

The Knicks needed someone to get hot, and Carmelo Anthony did as much as he could before fouling out. He had 24 on 9-23 shooting. JR Smith continued to struggle. He had 19 but shot just 7-22 from the field. Tyson Chandler called out his team for playing selfish basketball and poor ball movement, but this didn't seem to wake up the Knicks offense. Or perhaps, the Pacers defense is really that good.

Game 5 is a must-win for the Knicks if they want to avoid elimination, but to be honest I haven't seen all that much urgency from them. It wouldn't surprise me if the Pacers closed this one out in 5, but I will stick with my original prediction: Pacers in 6.