Before the start of the Pacers-Heat series, I said the Pacers would need a key injury and a bit of luck in order to stand a chance of upsetting the Heat. Well, now they've gotten their key injury, with Chris Bosh sidelined indefinitely with an abdominal injury -- one that will probably rule him out of the remainder of the series.

Of course, losing Bosh isn't the same as say losing Lebron or D-Wade, but make no mistake, Bosh's absence undoubtedly gives the Pacers a better chance in this series. Talent-wise, the Heat still more than enough to handle the Pacers, but losing the 6'11" Bosh, a versatile power forward who can give the Pacers' big men trouble at both ends of the floor, will be particularly damaging to a Heat team that is already limited in size.

Roy Hibbert was often drawn out of the key by Bosh's mid-range game, and struggled to keep up with Bosh's speed off the dribble. Without Bosh, the Heat have to throw a combination of Joel Anthony, Udonis Haslem and Ronny Turiaf at Hibbert, and none of these guys are over 6'10". If Hibbert doesn't take advantage of that, then the Pacers absolutely deserve to lose.

On the other hand, losing Bosh means we'll see a lot of Lebron at the four, which could be bad news. As we already know, Bosh sat out the entire second half of game one, and yet the Heat outscored the Pacers by 15. But I'm of the opinion that the sample was too small to take too much out of it. Over the course of the next few games, Bosh's absence will be felt, and it's up to the Pacers to utilize that to their advantage.

One other point: if Lebron is moved to the four, does that mean Granger won't have to guard him as much? If so, that could help Granger's offensive game. He's going to need all the help he can get too, considering he went 1-10 in game one.

Losing Bosh most probably won't be enough for the Pacers to overcome the Heat in this series. Their probability of winning probably went from something like 5% to about 15 or 20%, which makes it slightly more possible but still highly unlikely. The biggest beneficiary will probably be the teams the Heat play next after the Pacers (assuming they get through as expected), as Lebron and Wade will have to carry a much bigger load while Bosh is gone, and that will eat into their stamina in the later rounds. I'd like to think that if the Heat missed out on a title again this year, people will say that the Pacers had something to do with it.

The Pacers were facing an uphill battle right from the start, and yet they played valiantly, taking a 48-42 lead at the half against the heavily favored Heat team featuring three-time MVP Lebron James (who picked up his award before the game).

Even with that 6-point lead and an ab injury to Chis Bosh, I knew the Pacers were going to have a hard time winning game 1 because Lebron and Wade were going to get buckets down the stretch, whereas for the Pacers every point was going to be a struggle. I had hoped that the Pacers would turn in one of their trademark third quarters and blow the game wide open, giving them enough of a cushion in the fourth to withstand the inevitable Heat onslaught, but instead it was Miami that clawed their way back, tying the game at 70 apiece heading in the final 12 minutes.

I knew then game 1 was over, and sure enough, the Heat turned it into a 95-86 victory. Not an embarrassment by any means, but the Pacers have to know they probably just gave up their best chance of winning this series.

As a team, they didn't play particularly well. They got into foul trouble and allowed the Heat offense to get going in the second half. Hibbert had 17 and 11 and West had 17 and 12 on identical shooting numbers (6-12 FGs, 5-6 FTs), while Collison and Hill had 10 each.

The big story, of course, was Danny Granger's 7 points on 1-10 shooting. Everyone knew this was going to be a tough series for Granger because he was going up against Lebron. Apparently, after the game Vogel apologized for not getting Granger more involved in the offense. But he also said it was going to be hard for Granger to have a high scoring series because guarding Lebron for 38 minutes a game was going to take too much out of him.

I agree with both, and it's up to Granger to realize that he doesn't need to be the number one option on offense this series. Sometimes I still wonder whether he gets that he has better scoring options available on the team and that he doesn't have to chuck up some many shots. Games like these tend to affirm the view that he doesn't. On the other hand, for the Pacers to have a shot at winning, Granger does need to give the Pacers more points -- and that means picking his spots better, not forcing it like he has been. Granger has been just as culpable as his teammates in not making in the extra pass. The Pacers gave up a ton of open shots because guys were looking to get their own. And that's just not playing to one of the team's only advantages against the Heat -- depth.

The truth is, Vogel needs to take some flak for the way this game turned out. Despite all the film viewing sessions it still doesn't seem like he knows how to exploit mismatches and utilize the man with the hot hand. Everyone on the team needs to learn from the failures of game 1 and play better next time. It might not lead to a win, but at least we can say they did everything they could.

PS: Vogel's comments about the Heat flopping didn't do a whole lot of good (and yes, that includes the ludicrous $15,000 fine), with the Pacers sending the Heat to the line 38 times. David Stern said he would have fined Vogel more than the league office did, but then admitted that flopping was a "legitimate concern." Does that mean he is going to get fined as well?

 

Sometimes I wish the Pacers had finished with the fourth seed rather than the third. Despite being given an almost free pass in round one (no disrespect to the Magic, whose hard play is something the Pacers can certainly learn from this round), the Pacers are about to run into the juggernaught that is the Miami Heat. If they had finished fourth, sure, they might not have escaped the first around against the Hawks, but if they did, they would be facing the eight-seeded 76ers instead. But hey, I say bring of the Heat right now because it's time to see just how good this Pacers team is.

Let me break it down.

Season series

On paper, the Heat won the season series, 3-1, with relative ease, but you could make an argument that the Pacers got better as the series went on and that it should have been 2-2. Personally, I don't put much stock in what a series should have been -- a win is a win and a loss is a loss.

Nonetheless, for those who do care, the Pacers were blown out 118-83 in Miami in game 1 and the gap between the two teams was as wide as the score suggested. In game 2 back in Indiana, the Pacers were blown out again with a slightly more respectable 105-90 scoreline, though this one was over by about half time.

In game 3, the Pacers headed to Miami with renewed confidence and almost pulled out a win. They were on their way to a rare victory when Dahntay Jones has a brain freeze and the Heat came back to send the game into overtime, where D-Wade hit an impossible shot almost at the buzzer to win it for Miami, 93-91 (OT).

Game 4 was a different story. The Pacers came out strong against the Heat and returned the favor, earning a well-deserved 105-90 win in Indiana after blowing the game open in the third quarter.

So the Pacers lost by 35, lost by 15, lost by 2 in OT and won by 15. For those who haven't noticed, they've improved against the Heat each and every game. But of course, the regular season doesn't mean a whole lot right now, though it must be comforting for the Pacers to know that they are capable of beating this Heat team whether at home or away.

Hyping it up

The Pacers obviously don't get much attention or respect in the NBA. This ESPN article talking about how the Pacers offer no selling point says it all. Sadly, it's not all untrue.

Anyhoo, the Pacers have been doing their part to hype this series up. This Pacers team has shown that they love to talk, and throughout the season, coach Frank Vogel and guys like Danny Granger and Roy Hibbert have talked up their team like few others can in the league. Initially, I put it down to Vogel's motivational techniques and the team's false bravado -- but now I am starting to think that they truly believe in it, which is crucial if the Pacers want to have any chance in this series.

Here is some of the trash the Pacers have been talking before the start of the series.

1. Coach Vogel calling the Heat "the biggest floppers in the NBA." In a plea to the refs to make this an even series, Vogel explained: "Every drive to the basket, they have guys not making a play on the ball, but sliding in front of drivers. Oftentimes, they're falling down even before contact is even being made. It'll be interesting to see how the series is officiated."

2. Coach Vogel saying the teams are pretty evenly matched: "We are not viewing this in any way, shape or form like a David versus Goliath type of meeting." He said the Pacers "feel like we're one of the best teams in the league," and the series will be "two heavyweights going toe to toe."

3. Danny Granger saying the Pacers are not the underdogs. "I don't think we're underdogs by any means," he says. "Miami has more recognition with their Big Three guys, but I think we're a good team as well." Granger also said, "We actually have a better record than Miami does after the All-Star break."

4. George Hill saying it's not an upset if the Pacers win the series: "I don't feel like it's an upset if we win."

5. And this gem from Roy Hibbert, who will be the Pacers' biggest key in the series: "We didn't do it the easy way. It took time. We didn't do this by signing a couple of superstars."

In response, LeBron James simply said this: "I don't think they've given us too many problems, personally. We played some great ball against them. I think we gave them more problems than they gave us."

Matchups

The Pacers, like any other team in the NBA, are going to struggle against Miami's Big Three. The Pacers don't have the superstars of the Oklahoma City Thunder, the LA Lakers or even the New York Knicks. They don't have the relentless defensive intensity of the Chicago Bulls. They don't have the experience or the poise of the San Antonio Spurs. Whichever way you look at it, the Heat have to be heavy favorites simply because they have James, Wade and Bosh.

What they do have is a team with an above-average starting five comprising former All-Stars (David West, Danny Granger), a current borderline All-Star (Roy Hibbert), a potential future All-Star (Paul George) and a very solid starter who has played for one of the best organizations in the NBA (George Hill). They have a decent but sporadic bench -- speedy scorer Leandro Barbosa, speedy PG Darren Collison and super hustlers Tyler Hansbrough and Lou Amundson. If necessary, they've also got Dahntay Jones and AJ Price. It's a fairly even lineup that is physical and can be potent offensively when things are clicking, but can also be quite atrocious when the shots aren't falling.

On the other hand, the Heat faces a huge drop off on their roster after their Big Three. Not to say they don't have capable players -- Udonis Haslem, Mike Miller, Mario Chalmers and Shane Battier are all extremely capable -- but the Heat will go as far as the Big Three, and arguable, just LeBron, can take them.

The Big Three offers a lot of defensive issues for this Pacers team, who will have to find a way to play superb TEAM defense to slow them down. No one on the Pacers can guard the now three-time MVP LeBron James. He's too quick for David West, too big for Dahntay Jones, too strong for Paul George, and too much of everything for Danny Granger. None of them can really stop D-Wade either, who will probably be even more dangerous than LeBron in this series. And Bosh is too quick offensively for any of the Pacers' big guys, especially David West.

So for the Pacers to have any real chance, they'll need to play bigger and better than the sum of their parts, and perhaps be bestowed with a bit of luck here and there. Roy Hibbert is the key. The 7'2" big man towers over every Heat player, especially starting center Joel Anthony, who stands at just 6'9". For the Pacers to pull off the impossible, Hibbert needs to have the series of his career at both ends of the floor. He doesn't need to score 20-25 points a game, but he'll need to get enough touches to keep the Heat defense honest and spread the offense. He'll also need to protect the rim, because you know LeBron and Wade are going to be attacking all night. However, whether Hibbert will step up is another question. The big fella was supposed to tear up the Dwight Howard-less Magic in round one, but only averaged 11 points for the series. Sure, he also averaged 10.8 rebounds and 3.8 blocks, but 11 points is simply not going to be enough against the Heat.

Another guy who could be key is Darren Collison (coming off possibly his best game this year in the close out game against the Magic), who possesses the speed the Pacers need to disrupt Miami at both ends. Paul George, who had a disappointing first round, could be the X-factor if he steps up. Barbosa, who only played in one game in a Pacers uniform against the Heat (14 points in a 105-90 win), will be the key spark plug for the offense of the second unit.

Prediction

Game 1 is going to be key. If the Heat comes out firing and blasts the Pacers out of the building, which is actually not unlikely, then this could be a brutal 4 or 5 game series. That's how good I think this Heat team is and how much trouble they pose for this Pacers squad.

But if the Pacers come out with the same mentality they had against the Bulls last year -- ie, super physical, not backing down, protecting the paint, fighting for every loose ball and possession like the underdog they are -- then this could be a 6 or 7 game series, especially because guys like David West, George Hill and Leandro Barbosa have provided the Pacers with a certain mental toughness and stability that they lacked against the Bulls. And if the Pacers can steal a game in Miami (most likely game 1), then it's not beyond the realm of possibility that the Pacers could stun the world. We've seen Miami collapse before, and if the Pacers can rattle them early then you never know what might happen.

However, the truth is, the Heat are title favorites for a reason and too much has to go right for the Pacers (and too much has to go wrong for the Heat) before we can legitimately talk upset. I'm already very proud of how the Pacers have come this season, and all I can hope for is that they put in an effort that doesn't let down their fans. My guess is that the Pacers will give it all they've got, but in the end the Heat are going to be too strong and too determined. Barring a series-changing injury, I see the Heat pulling it out in 6 games.

If Pacers fans want to say that the team's 4-1 first round loss to the Bulls last year was closer than the numbers suggested, then they must also accept that the Pacers' 4-1 victory over the Magic, accomplished several hours ago, was a pretty close call as well.

Not to say the Pacers were not clearly the better team. They were. Without Dwight Howard, this Magic squad was supposed to be cannon fodder, but to the credit of their players and coach Stan Van Gundy, they fought unbelievably hard and had Pacers fans such as myself sweating bullets much more often than we would have liked. 

In the end -- 

Game 1: 81-77 (Magic)

Game 2: 93-78 (Pacers)

Game 3: 97-74 (Pacers)

Game 4: 101-99 OT (Pacers)

Game 5: 105-87 (Pacers)

-- the scorelines show only 2 close games, but in reality all games had their moments and were close until at least the third quarter. 

In the close-out game, Game 5, the Pacers once again raced out to an early lead but as usual allowed the Magic back into the game. While they usually broke open the game in the third, it was the Magic who put the foot on the gas this time, turning a 3 point halftime deficit into a 2 point lead heading into the fourth. At that stage, I was convinced that we were heading to a dangerous Game 6, and potentially a frightening Game 7.

Instead, Darren Collison happened, and the Pacers dominated 36-16 in the final quarter to finish off the Magic. Collison, who lost his starting job to George Hill towards the end of the season while recovering from a groin injury, was sensational, going 7-7 from the field and dishing out 4 big assists. For the game, Collison had 19 and 6. For the series, he had 23 assists against a single turnover.

The biggest contributor in Game 5 was no doubt Collison, but like every other game this series, it was a complete team effort. David West was a rock and a beast. Roy Hibbert swatted shots and protected the middle. Granger missed a lot but was a fearless leader who also hit a lot. Paul George had a disappointing series scoring-wise but did a lot of other little things. Every guy that played contributed in some way.

But still, this was also often a really frustrating series, marred by lapses in concentration, poor ball handling, being outhustled, bad shots and questionable coaching decisions. The Pacers wanted to be a grind it out kind of team and they have been, and it hasn't always been pretty. In fact, it was sometimes very ugly this series. Call it a learning experience for a young team still trying to find its identity.

And now, the Pacers have their first series win since 2005, the year Reggie Miller retired. Oh yes, and it's the first series win for a Pacers team that doesn't have Miller on its roster. Isn't that crazy?

Celebrations are likely to be shortlived, becase a stark reality awaits them next round. Although coach Vogel and the players don't want to admit it, they are going to be facing the Miami Heat in the next round, a team that most believe will simply cruise through to the Finals, if not the championship (I know, I know, they said that last year too).

The Pacers will be a bigger underdog against the Heat than they were favorites against the Magic. It's going to be that kind of a series, where everyone will have to play their best for the team to have a chance in any game, and sometimes even that's not going to be enough. But hey, given all the injuries that have happened this year (not to say I am wishing an injury on any Heat player), anything is possible if something unfortunate does end up happening to a key player or two.

As daunting as the challenge ahead of them seems, I kinda like the predicament the Pacers are in right now. I prefer them as the underdogs because I know they will be fighting and clawing all the way, and if they've learned a thing or two from the Magic team they've just eliminated, they should be pretty tough to deal with for the talented Heat. Even if they get blown away, I'd like to hope that they'd take a lot away from finally reaching round 2 after all these years.

I'll hold off any predictions for now out of respect for the Knicks. Stay tuned. 

Phew. The Indiana Pacers, up 80-63 in the fourth quarter, looked like they were on their way to another easy victory against the Orlando Magic in their first round series. But full credit to the Magic, who scratched and clawed and rode the momentum of the home crowd to get right back into this one and almost pulling out the victory before heading to overtime, where the Pacers eventually prevailed, 101-99, on a pair of George Hill free throws.

Yes, the same George Hill that almost lose a game for the Pacers late in the regular season by missing 3 of 4 free throws, was huge down the stretch, scoring the Pacers' final 6 points of the game -- 4 big free throws wrapped around a baseline floater -- to effectively ice it.

In all, it was another team effort. David West was best with 26 points and 12 rebounds. Roy Hibbert was a beast with 14, 11 and 3 blocks, though he could have done more. Granger had 21 points and 7 rebounds. Darren Collison was huge off the bench with 11 points and 9 assists in just 18 minutes.

So now the Pacers are up 3-1 and can close out the series against the Magic in game 5 back in Indiana. A lot of people may have predicted that the Pacers would be up 3-1, but I think few would have guessed that they'd lose game 1 at home and win both games in Orlando. Regardless, it's a good position to be in.

As for this game, I guess you could look at it in two ways. The first is that the Pacers showed they're not mentally ready for the Miami Heat in the second round. The second is that the Pacers have taken a big step forward in holding on and grinding out the victory -- after losing game 1 in a similar collapse. I guess we'll have to see if they can close out the series first.